Mathematical Ways to Analyze Homo Sapiens’ Carbon Footprint.

How much longer do humans have until their carbon footprint catches up?

Research from NASA reports that every second, 750 metric tons of carbon dioxide is being emitted due to burning fossil fuels. However, the number has only sometimes been this high, as the amount of carbon emissions has only increased since the Industrial Revolution. The carbon footprint that humans leave on the environment is substantial, and will only increase in the future. One way to strategically determine the precise amount is through mathematical models. Caltech’s researchers Tapio Schneider, Andrew Stuart, and Anna Jaruga (acting on behalf of Climate Modeling Alliance [CliMA]), have been researching different versions of climate models that have been used to predict climate change. They have also integrated many of these ideas into a next-generation model that allows them to analyze data that is gathered about Earth from satellites and other materials. Another study titled “Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model” by Valerio Lembo, Valerio Luciani, and Francesco Ragone analyzes the Ruelle Response Theory.

Steam emitted from the cooling towers of the Jänschwalde lignite-fired power plant operated by Lausitz Energie Bergbau AG (LEAG). Credit: Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images

The model outlines follows as such, “One experiment features an instantaneous CO2 doubling (2xC02) taking place in the year 1850, and the outputs of its ensemble members are used to compute the Green functions of several observables of interest. We then perform an ensemble of runs where the CO2 concentration is increased - starting also at the year 1850 - at the rate of 1% per year until doubling (1pctCO2), which takes place after about 70 years (y). We use the Green function computed to reconstruct the response and compare the prediction with direct numerical simulations. The Green function is defined for 2000 y. Therefore, in what follows we can perform predictions beyond the time frame simulated in the 1pctCo2 scenario (which is only 1000 y long), thus showing very useful predictive power.” The model containing the equation of 1pctCo2 displays perfect accuracy through its responses.

In addition to the models presented above, the temperature near the surface of the water must be measured. This can be done in two ways: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), and combined with global ocean heat uptake (OHU). This can accurately predict the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. This model is a mathematically accurate way to study the conditions leading to climate change, in addition to identifying the tipping point of these places. Other models include those by Climate.gov, which reports hind-casting as a way for comparing observed climate and weather conditions to see how well they match. In the future, these models may also be able to measure how quickly the population can grow, how the land will be used, and the atmospheric climate.

As concluded with current models, results show that the temperature will only continue to increase and that human decisions and behavior will greatly affect the future.

The best that humans can do in this situation is to utilize these mathematical models that can accurately predict the future of climate change, and the intricacies of how the models are created can also lead to future, better models that can be created. I believe that the research that is currently being done creates valuable information that will allow the future of this type of research to become further developed. Humans can try working towards SDG 13 (or Sustainable Development Goal 13), which is adapting to climate change. Humans must take action on this issue. Mathematics is an important part of STEM and the creation of models, as well. STEM learning and development is one of the main factors in working towards a solution. As the topics may be considered confusing to many, it is necessary to have scientists that specifically survey this, and dedicate themselves to fighting climate change.

This effort will take a significant amount of effort, and I believe that with these mathematical models, we are already making progress.